**Current forecasts for Istanbul on August 10 place the daily maximum near the long-term August average of 27–29 °C, with model outputs clustered around 28 °C.** This aligns with the market’s leading 28 °C outcome (51.5 % implied probability), followed by 27 °C (26.5 %) and 29 °C (18.5 %). Recent observations show highs reaching 32–33 °C under a warm, mostly sunny regime driven by subtropical high pressure and light northerly flow. However, ensemble guidance indicates modest cooling from increased cloud cover and a strengthening sea-breeze component off the Marmara and Black Seas, which typically caps temperatures near climatological norms rather than allowing further warming. **Key resolution thresholds hinge on official Turkish State Meteorological Service measurements at the central Istanbul station.** With only two days until the target date, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model runs that show limited day-to-day variability and low probability of extremes outside the 26–30 °C envelope. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns confirm that rapid shifts beyond ±2 °C from the mean are uncommon absent a strong frontal passage, supporting the concentrated probability mass around the current favorites.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 10?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 10?
28°C 52%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 10, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
27%
28°C
52%
29°C
19%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 52%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 10, 2026
23°C or below
$260 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$228 Wol.
1%
25°C
$116 Wol.
1%
26°C
$142 Wol.
3%
27°C
$107 Wol.
27%
28°C
$515 Wol.
52%
29°C
$185 Wol.
19%
30°C
$81 Wol.
3%
31°C
$57 Wol.
1%
32°C
$56 Wol.
1%
33°C or higher
$218 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Istanbul on August 10 place the daily maximum near the long-term August average of 27–29 °C, with model outputs clustered around 28 °C.** This aligns with the market’s leading 28 °C outcome (51.5 % implied probability), followed by 27 °C (26.5 %) and 29 °C (18.5 %). Recent observations show highs reaching 32–33 °C under a warm, mostly sunny regime driven by subtropical high pressure and light northerly flow. However, ensemble guidance indicates modest cooling from increased cloud cover and a strengthening sea-breeze component off the Marmara and Black Seas, which typically caps temperatures near climatological norms rather than allowing further warming.
**Key resolution thresholds hinge on official Turkish State Meteorological Service measurements at the central Istanbul station.** With only two days until the target date, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model runs that show limited day-to-day variability and low probability of extremes outside the 26–30 °C envelope. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns confirm that rapid shifts beyond ±2 °C from the mean are uncommon absent a strong frontal passage, supporting the concentrated probability mass around the current favorites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,963Data zakończenia
Aug 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Istanbul on August 10 place the daily maximum near the long-term August average of 27–29 °C, with model outputs clustered around 28 °C.** This aligns with the market’s leading 28 °C outcome (51.5 % implied probability), followed by 27 °C (26.5 %) and 29 °C (18.5 %). Recent observations show highs reaching 32–33 °C under a warm, mostly sunny regime driven by subtropical high pressure and light northerly flow. However, ensemble guidance indicates modest cooling from increased cloud cover and a strengthening sea-breeze component off the Marmara and Black Seas, which typically caps temperatures near climatological norms rather than allowing further warming.
**Key resolution thresholds hinge on official Turkish State Meteorological Service measurements at the central Istanbul station.** With only two days until the target date, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model runs that show limited day-to-day variability and low probability of extremes outside the 26–30 °C envelope. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns confirm that rapid shifts beyond ±2 °C from the mean are uncommon absent a strong frontal passage, supporting the concentrated probability mass around the current favorites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,963Data zakończenia
Aug 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Istanbul on August 10 place the daily maximum near the long-term August average of 27–29 °C, with model outputs clustered around 28 °C.** This aligns with the market’s leading 28 °C outcome (51.5 % implied probability), followed by 27 °C (26.5 %) and 29 °C (18.5 %). Recent observations show highs reaching 32–33 °C under a warm, mostly sunny regime driven by subtropical high pressure and light northerly flow. However, ensemble guidance indicates modest cooling from increased cloud cover and a strengthening sea-breeze component off the Marmara and Black Seas, which typically caps temperatures near climatological norms rather than allowing further warming. **Key resolution thresholds hinge on official Turkish State Meteorological Service measurements at the central Istanbul station.** With only two days until the target date, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model runs that show limited day-to-day variability and low probability of extremes outside the 26–30 °C envelope. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns confirm that rapid shifts beyond ±2 °C from the mean are uncommon absent a strong frontal passage, supporting the concentrated probability mass around the current favorites.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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