Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
62-63°F 55%
70-71°F 42%
66-67°F 37%
68-69°F 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
55%
64-65°F
32%
66-67°F
37%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
42%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
32%
76-77°F
31%
78°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 55%
70-71°F 42%
66-67°F 37%
68-69°F 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
$44 Wol.
1%
60-61°F
$44 Wol.
9%
62-63°F
$0 Wol.
55%
64-65°F
$0 Wol.
32%
66-67°F
$0 Wol.
37%
68-69°F
$0 Wol.
37%
70-71°F
$0 Wol.
42%
72-73°F
$0 Wol.
32%
74-75°F
$0 Wol.
32%
76-77°F
$0 Wol.
31%
78°F or higher
$44 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$131Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$131Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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