**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.** Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
28 fev 2027
Sim
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
28 fev 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.**
Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.**
Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.** Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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