No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through late September, supporting the market's 75% implied probability for "No." NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, including the Sentry risk list and fireball repository, show no catalogued near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering that energy, with recent detections limited to sub-10m objects that produced far smaller airbursts or disintegrated harmlessly. Historical records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet the absence of detections year-to-date—despite continuous infrasound and optical surveillance—combined with only months remaining, drives trader consensus toward resolution as "No" absent an unforeseen large undetected impactor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
21% chance
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
28 fev 2027
Sim
21% chance
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
28 fev 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through late September, supporting the market's 75% implied probability for "No." NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, including the Sentry risk list and fireball repository, show no catalogued near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering that energy, with recent detections limited to sub-10m objects that produced far smaller airbursts or disintegrated harmlessly. Historical records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet the absence of detections year-to-date—despite continuous infrasound and optical surveillance—combined with only months remaining, drives trader consensus toward resolution as "No" absent an unforeseen large undetected impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,157Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through late September, supporting the market's 75% implied probability for "No." NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, including the Sentry risk list and fireball repository, show no catalogued near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering that energy, with recent detections limited to sub-10m objects that produced far smaller airbursts or disintegrated harmlessly. Historical records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet the absence of detections year-to-date—despite continuous infrasound and optical surveillance—combined with only months remaining, drives trader consensus toward resolution as "No" absent an unforeseen large undetected impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,157Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through late September, supporting the market's 75% implied probability for "No." NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, including the Sentry risk list and fireball repository, show no catalogued near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering that energy, with recent detections limited to sub-10m objects that produced far smaller airbursts or disintegrated harmlessly. Historical records indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet the absence of detections year-to-date—despite continuous infrasound and optical surveillance—combined with only months remaining, drives trader consensus toward resolution as "No" absent an unforeseen large undetected impactor.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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