Skip to main content
icon for Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia

Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia

icon for Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia

Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia

Sim

66% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

66% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Proposition 3 on California's November 2026 ballot would amend the state constitution to permanently extend the top marginal income tax rates on high earners (10.3% to 12.3% brackets beginning at roughly $361,000 single or $721,000 joint), originally enacted via Proposition 30 in 2012 and extended by Proposition 55 through 2031. These rates generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% directed to K–12 schools and community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with backing from major teachers' unions, including the California Teachers Association. Trader consensus at 68% for passage reflects the pattern of prior voter approval (55% in 2012, 63% in 2016), the measure's focus on preserving existing revenue without new rate increases, and limited organized opposition as of mid-August 2026. The November 3 election remains the key resolution trigger.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Proposition 3 on California's November 2026 ballot would amend the state constitution to permanently extend the top marginal income tax rates on high earners (10.3% to 12.3% brackets beginning at roughly $361,000 single or $721,000 joint), originally enacted via Proposition 30 in 2012 and extended by Proposition 55 through 2031. These rates generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% directed to K–12 schools and community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with backing from major teachers' unions, including the California Teachers Association. Trader consensus at 68% for passage reflects the pattern of prior voter approval (55% in 2012, 63% in 2016), the measure's focus on preserving existing revenue without new rate increases, and limited organized opposition as of mid-August 2026. The November 3 election remains the key resolution trigger.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Proposta de Imposto Permanente para Altos Rendimentos na Califórnia" at 67%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia" is "Proposta de Imposto Permanente para Altos Rendimentos na Califórnia" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Proposta Fiscal Permanente High-Earner da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.