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icon for Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia

Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia

icon for Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia

Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia

Sim

49% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

49% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face a closely contested November 2026 ballot measure that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and investment holdings while limiting retroactive taxation based on pre-enactment status or conduct. The proposition emerged as a direct counter to the competing 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, with both measures designed so that the higher-vote initiative prevails if approved; this linkage has driven balanced trader positioning. Recent developments include substantial early fundraising by business-backed opposition groups, federal legislation targeting retroactive state taxes on former residents, and ongoing legal debate over the constitutionality of residency-based retroactivity in wealth-tax proposals. Upcoming campaign developments, voter mobilization around property protections, and any shifts in polling on the paired wealth-tax initiative could alter the narrow balance ahead of election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face a closely contested November 2026 ballot measure that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and investment holdings while limiting retroactive taxation based on pre-enactment status or conduct. The proposition emerged as a direct counter to the competing 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, with both measures designed so that the higher-vote initiative prevails if approved; this linkage has driven balanced trader positioning. Recent developments include substantial early fundraising by business-backed opposition groups, federal legislation targeting retroactive state taxes on former residents, and ongoing legal debate over the constitutionality of residency-based retroactivity in wealth-tax proposals. Upcoming campaign developments, voter mobilization around property protections, and any shifts in polling on the paired wealth-tax initiative could alter the narrow balance ahead of election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Proposta de Proibição de Tributação Retroativa na Califórnia" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia" is "Proposta de Proibição de Tributação Retroativa na Califórnia" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Proposição de Proibição Fiscal Retroativa da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.