North Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent wide margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Valerie Foushee secured renomination in a close March 2026 primary and faces Republican Mahesh Ganorkar plus a Libertarian in the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability in trader consensus. The outcome hinges on the district's partisan composition encompassing Durham and surrounding areas rather than specific campaign developments. Late-cycle events such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or a substantial national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though structural fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNC-04 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
NC-04 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
$45,730 Vol.
$45,730 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$45,730 Vol.
$45,730 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$14,801 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$30,929 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent wide margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Valerie Foushee secured renomination in a close March 2026 primary and faces Republican Mahesh Ganorkar plus a Libertarian in the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability in trader consensus. The outcome hinges on the district's partisan composition encompassing Durham and surrounding areas rather than specific campaign developments. Late-cycle events such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or a substantial national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though structural fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$45,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent wide margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Valerie Foushee secured renomination in a close March 2026 primary and faces Republican Mahesh Ganorkar plus a Libertarian in the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability in trader consensus. The outcome hinges on the district's partisan composition encompassing Durham and surrounding areas rather than specific campaign developments. Late-cycle events such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or a substantial national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though structural fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...North Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent wide margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Valerie Foushee secured renomination in a close March 2026 primary and faces Republican Mahesh Ganorkar plus a Libertarian in the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability in trader consensus. The outcome hinges on the district's partisan composition encompassing Durham and surrounding areas rather than specific campaign developments. Late-cycle events such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or a substantial national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though structural fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions