Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell contend with minimal fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns in the Richmond-centered district. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unanticipated national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain rare in comparably safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVA-04 Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara
VA-04 Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
96%
Robert Murray (R)
2%
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
$12,217 Vol.
96%
Robert Murray (R)
$29,397 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell contend with minimal fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns in the Richmond-centered district. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unanticipated national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain rare in comparably safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,614Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell contend with minimal fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns in the Richmond-centered district. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unanticipated national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain rare in comparably safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,614Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s entrenched Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. McClellan advanced unopposed after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell contend with minimal fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. All major forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns in the Richmond-centered district. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unanticipated national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain rare in comparably safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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