Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare International Airport on April 8, with implied odds split between mid-40s bins (42-49°F at ~45-46%) and 50°F or higher (50%), far below the National Weather Service normal of 56°F. Recent heavy rainfall and a flood watch through April 4 have entrenched a cool, cloudy trough over the Midwest, capping highs via persistent cloud cover and cool air advection, as seen in current GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing spreads of 42-55°F. Southwesterly flow potential could boost temps above 50°F if ridging amplifies, but model disagreements persist. Watch NWS Chicago's afternoon updates and tomorrow's 12Z runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
50°F or higher 50%
42-43°F 25%
44-45°F 25%
46-47°F 25%
31°F or below
3%
32-33°F
3%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
1%
38-39°F
14%
40-41°F
14%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
25%
46-47°F
25%
48-49°F
25%
50°F or higher
50%
50°F or higher 50%
42-43°F 25%
44-45°F 25%
46-47°F 25%
31°F or below
3%
32-33°F
3%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
1%
38-39°F
14%
40-41°F
14%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
25%
46-47°F
25%
48-49°F
25%
50°F or higher
50%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare International Airport on April 8, with implied odds split between mid-40s bins (42-49°F at ~45-46%) and 50°F or higher (50%), far below the National Weather Service normal of 56°F. Recent heavy rainfall and a flood watch through April 4 have entrenched a cool, cloudy trough over the Midwest, capping highs via persistent cloud cover and cool air advection, as seen in current GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing spreads of 42-55°F. Southwesterly flow potential could boost temps above 50°F if ridging amplifies, but model disagreements persist. Watch NWS Chicago's afternoon updates and tomorrow's 12Z runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions