Divergent short-range forecast models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles drive the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–22°C for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 8, with a slight trader edge to 22°C or higher at 26% reflecting recent warming trends. Current cloudy conditions yielding highs near 26°C on April 4–5 have boosted optimism for persistence of mild highs, but uncertainty stems from potential re-development of low-level clouds and patchy rain in the Sichuan Basin—exacerbated by surrounding mountains trapping moisture and limiting diurnal heating. Historical April averages hover around 21°C, with model spreads of 3–7°C highlighting sensitivity to afternoon cloud evolution and frontal timing; daily CMA updates through April 7 will sharpen consensus before resolution via official Chengdu Shuangliu Airport observations.