Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 34% probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts projecting 25–28°C amid overcast skies transitioning to thunderstorms, which limit solar insolation and peak heating through evaporative cooling and cloud shading. This follows April 3 observations of around 26°C with passing clouds, establishing a mild baseline amid typical early April subtropical conditions (historical highs averaging 26–27°C). High uncertainty across outcomes stems from model divergences—GFS ensembles hint at partial clearing for 27–28°C, while ECMWF favors persistent showers capping at 24–25°C—hinging on trough timing, sea breeze strength, and afternoon precipitation onset. Final CMA updates today could refine these odds before observations resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
26°C 32%
25°C 21%
24°C 17%
27°C 17%
NOVO
NOVO
4 abr 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
17%
25°C
21%
26°C
32%
27°C
17%
28°C
9%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 32%
25°C 21%
24°C 17%
27°C 17%
NOVO
NOVO
4 abr 2026
19°C or below
$1,151 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,151 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,245 Vol.
3%
23°C
$711 Vol.
5%
24°C
$473 Vol.
17%
25°C
$425 Vol.
21%
26°C
$674 Vol.
32%
27°C
$481 Vol.
17%
28°C
$883 Vol.
9%
29°C or higher
$1,315 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 34% probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts projecting 25–28°C amid overcast skies transitioning to thunderstorms, which limit solar insolation and peak heating through evaporative cooling and cloud shading. This follows April 3 observations of around 26°C with passing clouds, establishing a mild baseline amid typical early April subtropical conditions (historical highs averaging 26–27°C). High uncertainty across outcomes stems from model divergences—GFS ensembles hint at partial clearing for 27–28°C, while ECMWF favors persistent showers capping at 24–25°C—hinging on trough timing, sea breeze strength, and afternoon precipitation onset. Final CMA updates today could refine these odds before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$9,688Data de Término
4 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 34% probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts projecting 25–28°C amid overcast skies transitioning to thunderstorms, which limit solar insolation and peak heating through evaporative cooling and cloud shading. This follows April 3 observations of around 26°C with passing clouds, establishing a mild baseline amid typical early April subtropical conditions (historical highs averaging 26–27°C). High uncertainty across outcomes stems from model divergences—GFS ensembles hint at partial clearing for 27–28°C, while ECMWF favors persistent showers capping at 24–25°C—hinging on trough timing, sea breeze strength, and afternoon precipitation onset. Final CMA updates today could refine these odds before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,688Data de Término
4 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 34% probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts projecting 25–28°C amid overcast skies transitioning to thunderstorms, which limit solar insolation and peak heating through evaporative cooling and cloud shading. This follows April 3 observations of around 26°C with passing clouds, establishing a mild baseline amid typical early April subtropical conditions (historical highs averaging 26–27°C). High uncertainty across outcomes stems from model divergences—GFS ensembles hint at partial clearing for 27–28°C, while ECMWF favors persistent showers capping at 24–25°C—hinging on trough timing, sea breeze strength, and afternoon precipitation onset. Final CMA updates today could refine these odds before observations resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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