Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with implied odds favoring 19°C (31.5%) over 20°C or higher (23.6%) and 17°C (20.0%), driven by divergent model outputs amid a cooling trend. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance projects a high near 14-16°C under clear skies from northerly cold air advection following recent mild days (April 4 high of 19°C), while ECMWF and GFS ensembles suggest potential for 17-19°C due to stronger diurnal heating and urban heat effects. Early April climatology shows highs averaging 17-20°C with high day-to-day variability; new 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen resolution before the event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
19°C 27%
20°C or higher 24.1%
17°C 20%
18°C 17%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
20%
18°C
17%
19°C
27%
20°C or higher
24%
19°C 27%
20°C or higher 24.1%
17°C 20%
18°C 17%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
20%
18°C
17%
19°C
27%
20°C or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with implied odds favoring 19°C (31.5%) over 20°C or higher (23.6%) and 17°C (20.0%), driven by divergent model outputs amid a cooling trend. The China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance projects a high near 14-16°C under clear skies from northerly cold air advection following recent mild days (April 4 high of 19°C), while ECMWF and GFS ensembles suggest potential for 17-19°C due to stronger diurnal heating and urban heat effects. Early April climatology shows highs averaging 17-20°C with high day-to-day variability; new 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen resolution before the event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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