Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 near 21-22°C amid clearing skies and southerly flow, positioning 21°C as the trader-favored outcome at 39% implied probability. Yesterday's light rain limited April 3 highs to around 16°C—cooler than early April climatological norms of 17°C—but warming advection from a mild high-pressure ridge is set to boost daytime maxima tomorrow. Ensemble spreads of 4-5°C reflect uncertainty in cloud cover persistence and potential weak frontal passages. Key updates include CMA's afternoon forecast and new 12z model runs, which could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Shanghai Pudong observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 40%
22°C 22%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
$58,586 Vol.
$58,586 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
16%
21°C
40%
22°C
22%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
7%
21°C 40%
22°C 22%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
$58,586 Vol.
$58,586 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
16%
21°C
40%
22°C
22%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, corroborated by AccuWeather and China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 near 21-22°C amid clearing skies and southerly flow, positioning 21°C as the trader-favored outcome at 39% implied probability. Yesterday's light rain limited April 3 highs to around 16°C—cooler than early April climatological norms of 17°C—but warming advection from a mild high-pressure ridge is set to boost daytime maxima tomorrow. Ensemble spreads of 4-5°C reflect uncertainty in cloud cover persistence and potential weak frontal passages. Key updates include CMA's afternoon forecast and new 12z model runs, which could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Shanghai Pudong observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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