Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen at Bao'an International Airport (88.5% implied probability), driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak around 28°C amid persistent thundershowers from a low-pressure trough affecting southern China. Morning METAR observations at ZGSZ already show air temperatures reaching 26–27°C with high humidity (dew points near 23°C) and scattered clouds, aligning with seasonal early-April norms of 27°C averages while capping upside potential through convective activity and southerly winds. The 9.5% odds on 29°C reflect minor model spread for brief clearing, but probabilities plummet below 1% for 30°C+ due to precipitation suppressing radiative heating; hourly airport observations through afternoon will refine resolution as the market nears close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 3?
29°C 69%
30°C or higher 17.9%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$109,022 Vol.
$109,022 Vol.
3 abr 2026
25°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
48%
29°C
69%
30°C or higher
12%
29°C 69%
30°C or higher 17.9%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$109,022 Vol.
$109,022 Vol.
3 abr 2026
25°C
$6,751 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$33,505 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,752 Vol.
48%
29°C
$6,377 Vol.
69%
30°C or higher
$17,253 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen at Bao'an International Airport (88.5% implied probability), driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak around 28°C amid persistent thundershowers from a low-pressure trough affecting southern China. Morning METAR observations at ZGSZ already show air temperatures reaching 26–27°C with high humidity (dew points near 23°C) and scattered clouds, aligning with seasonal early-April norms of 27°C averages while capping upside potential through convective activity and southerly winds. The 9.5% odds on 29°C reflect minor model spread for brief clearing, but probabilities plummet below 1% for 30°C+ due to precipitation suppressing radiative heating; hourly airport observations through afternoon will refine resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$109,022Data de Término
3 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Janela de disputa
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen at Bao'an International Airport (88.5% implied probability), driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak around 28°C amid persistent thundershowers from a low-pressure trough affecting southern China. Morning METAR observations at ZGSZ already show air temperatures reaching 26–27°C with high humidity (dew points near 23°C) and scattered clouds, aligning with seasonal early-April norms of 27°C averages while capping upside potential through convective activity and southerly winds. The 9.5% odds on 29°C reflect minor model spread for brief clearing, but probabilities plummet below 1% for 30°C+ due to precipitation suppressing radiative heating; hourly airport observations through afternoon will refine resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$109,022Data de Término
3 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Janela de disputa
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen at Bao'an International Airport (88.5% implied probability), driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak around 28°C amid persistent thundershowers from a low-pressure trough affecting southern China. Morning METAR observations at ZGSZ already show air temperatures reaching 26–27°C with high humidity (dew points near 23°C) and scattered clouds, aligning with seasonal early-April norms of 27°C averages while capping upside potential through convective activity and southerly winds. The 9.5% odds on 29°C reflect minor model spread for brief clearing, but probabilities plummet below 1% for 30°C+ due to precipitation suppressing radiative heating; hourly airport observations through afternoon will refine resolution as the market nears close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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