Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate persistent cloud cover and widespread precipitation over Chongqing on September 15, limiting solar heating and capping daytime maxima near 21–24 °C. This pattern stems from a mid-latitude trough enhancing moisture transport and promoting stratiform rain, which increases surface albedo and reduces sensible heat flux. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 22–24 °C because ensemble guidance shows minimal spread in boundary-layer temperatures once rain begins, though minor shifts in onset timing or intensity could nudge the daily high by 1–2 °C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models ahead of the 15th will refine these thresholds before resolution.