Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a subtropical high-pressure pattern with easterly flow supporting daytime highs near 30–32°C for Hong Kong on September 15, driving the market’s tight clustering around 31–32°C implied probabilities. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce cooling potential that caps upside risk, while humidity and light winds limit rapid temperature rises. Ensemble spreads highlight modest uncertainty in afternoon peak readings, consistent with historical mid-September variability where maxima average near 30°C. Traders appear to weigh these factors against official guidance, with lower-probability outcomes for 33°C+ reflecting limited intensification signals and 30°C or below tied to possible enhanced precipitation. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 15 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Hong Kong no dia 15 de setembro?
32°C 38%
31°C 32%
35°C ou mais 19%
33°C 16%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
25°C ou menos
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
15%
31°C
32%
32°C
38%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C ou mais
19%
32°C 38%
31°C 32%
35°C ou mais 19%
33°C 16%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
25°C ou menos
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$6 Vol.
1%
27°C
$6 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3 Vol.
1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
6%
30°C
$10 Vol.
15%
31°C
$19 Vol.
32%
32°C
$36 Vol.
38%
33°C
$86 Vol.
16%
34°C
$49 Vol.
4%
35°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a subtropical high-pressure pattern with easterly flow supporting daytime highs near 30–32°C for Hong Kong on September 15, driving the market’s tight clustering around 31–32°C implied probabilities. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce cooling potential that caps upside risk, while humidity and light winds limit rapid temperature rises. Ensemble spreads highlight modest uncertainty in afternoon peak readings, consistent with historical mid-September variability where maxima average near 30°C. Traders appear to weigh these factors against official guidance, with lower-probability outcomes for 33°C+ reflecting limited intensification signals and 30°C or below tied to possible enhanced precipitation. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$245Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a subtropical high-pressure pattern with easterly flow supporting daytime highs near 30–32°C for Hong Kong on September 15, driving the market’s tight clustering around 31–32°C implied probabilities. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce cooling potential that caps upside risk, while humidity and light winds limit rapid temperature rises. Ensemble spreads highlight modest uncertainty in afternoon peak readings, consistent with historical mid-September variability where maxima average near 30°C. Traders appear to weigh these factors against official guidance, with lower-probability outcomes for 33°C+ reflecting limited intensification signals and 30°C or below tied to possible enhanced precipitation. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$245Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a subtropical high-pressure pattern with easterly flow supporting daytime highs near 30–32°C for Hong Kong on September 15, driving the market’s tight clustering around 31–32°C implied probabilities. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce cooling potential that caps upside risk, while humidity and light winds limit rapid temperature rises. Ensemble spreads highlight modest uncertainty in afternoon peak readings, consistent with historical mid-September variability where maxima average near 30°C. Traders appear to weigh these factors against official guidance, with lower-probability outcomes for 33°C+ reflecting limited intensification signals and 30°C or below tied to possible enhanced precipitation. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions