Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature in Madrid on September 17 likely between 26–27°C, driven by northeasterly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover limiting daytime insolation after a hotter period earlier in the month. These conditions create narrow uncertainty around the daily maximum, with model spreads and local microclimate effects—such as urban heat retention versus elevation influences—explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh the timing of peak heating against potential afternoon clearing or wind shifts that could nudge the outcome by 1°C, consistent with typical late-summer variability in the region where highs average near 27°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de setembro?
27°C 36%
26°C 35%
25°C 16%
28°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
17 set 2026
21°C ou menos
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
16%
26°C
35%
27°C
36%
28°C
13%
29°C
3%
30°C
2%
31°C ou mais
<1%
27°C 36%
26°C 35%
25°C 16%
28°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
17 set 2026
21°C ou menos
$278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$297 Vol.
1%
23°C
$120 Vol.
1%
24°C
$246 Vol.
2%
25°C
$930 Vol.
16%
26°C
$377 Vol.
35%
27°C
$956 Vol.
36%
28°C
$222 Vol.
13%
29°C
$40 Vol.
3%
30°C
$175 Vol.
2%
31°C ou mais
$146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature in Madrid on September 17 likely between 26–27°C, driven by northeasterly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover limiting daytime insolation after a hotter period earlier in the month. These conditions create narrow uncertainty around the daily maximum, with model spreads and local microclimate effects—such as urban heat retention versus elevation influences—explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh the timing of peak heating against potential afternoon clearing or wind shifts that could nudge the outcome by 1°C, consistent with typical late-summer variability in the region where highs average near 27°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,788Data de Término
17 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature in Madrid on September 17 likely between 26–27°C, driven by northeasterly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover limiting daytime insolation after a hotter period earlier in the month. These conditions create narrow uncertainty around the daily maximum, with model spreads and local microclimate effects—such as urban heat retention versus elevation influences—explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh the timing of peak heating against potential afternoon clearing or wind shifts that could nudge the outcome by 1°C, consistent with typical late-summer variability in the region where highs average near 27°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,788Data de Término
17 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a high temperature in Madrid on September 17 likely between 26–27°C, driven by northeasterly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover limiting daytime insolation after a hotter period earlier in the month. These conditions create narrow uncertainty around the daily maximum, with model spreads and local microclimate effects—such as urban heat retention versus elevation influences—explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh the timing of peak heating against potential afternoon clearing or wind shifts that could nudge the outcome by 1°C, consistent with typical late-summer variability in the region where highs average near 27°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions