Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 15 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 15 de setembro?
27°C 25%
25°C 23%
28°C 18%
26°C 17%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
21°C ou menos
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
23%
26°C
17%
27°C
25%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C ou mais
10%
27°C 25%
25°C 23%
28°C 18%
26°C 17%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
21°C ou menos
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$10 Vol.
4%
23°C
$11 Vol.
3%
24°C
$2 Vol.
6%
25°C
$1 Vol.
23%
26°C
$60 Vol.
17%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$55 Vol.
18%
29°C
$22 Vol.
7%
30°C
$10 Vol.
1%
31°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$131Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$131Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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