Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 2, 2026, backed by the official observation from the San Francisco International Airport ASOS station (KSFO), which recorded a maximum of 62°F around 2:00 PM local time. This positioning reflects verified data from the National Weather Service and Weather Underground, showing partly cloudy skies, persistent westerly winds gusting to 26 mph, and marine layer influence that capped daytime heating despite minimal overnight lows around 50°F. April climatology at KSFO averages highs near 64°F, but cool sea surface temperatures and upper-level troughing suppressed warming. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NOAA quality control or disputes over station-specific measurements, though such events are exceedingly uncommon for resolved daily records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 2?
62-63°F 100.0%
64-65°F <1%
66°F or higher <1%
$58,544 Vol.
$58,544 Vol.
62-63°F
100%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
62-63°F 100.0%
64-65°F <1%
66°F or higher <1%
$58,544 Vol.
$58,544 Vol.
62-63°F
100%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 2, 2026, backed by the official observation from the San Francisco International Airport ASOS station (KSFO), which recorded a maximum of 62°F around 2:00 PM local time. This positioning reflects verified data from the National Weather Service and Weather Underground, showing partly cloudy skies, persistent westerly winds gusting to 26 mph, and marine layer influence that capped daytime heating despite minimal overnight lows around 50°F. April climatology at KSFO averages highs near 64°F, but cool sea surface temperatures and upper-level troughing suppressed warming. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NOAA quality control or disputes over station-specific measurements, though such events are exceedingly uncommon for resolved daily records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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