Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Chengdu on April 3 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration—relayed via Hong Kong Observatory bulletins—projecting a maximum of 24–25°C under persistent overcast skies at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, the market's resolution station. AccuWeather and other models align closely, showing daytime highs around 78°F (26°C) amid cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating, consistent with early-spring patterns in the Sichuan Basin where April averages hover near 22°C. Morning observations near 14°C further support subdued warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling 1–2°C additional rise to 26°C, though model ensembles show strong agreement against this. Final airport readings expected by evening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
25°C 99.7%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$87,368 Vol.
$87,368 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.7%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$87,368 Vol.
$87,368 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Chengdu on April 3 (99.8% implied probability), driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration—relayed via Hong Kong Observatory bulletins—projecting a maximum of 24–25°C under persistent overcast skies at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, the market's resolution station. AccuWeather and other models align closely, showing daytime highs around 78°F (26°C) amid cloudy conditions that limit solar insolation and peak heating, consistent with early-spring patterns in the Sichuan Basin where April averages hover near 22°C. Morning observations near 14°C further support subdued warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling 1–2°C additional rise to 26°C, though model ensembles show strong agreement against this. Final airport readings expected by evening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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