Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) at Chopin Airport station, where hourly data peaked at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs accurately forecasted this modest high within a cool continental air mass typical for early mid-spring in central Poland, with historical April 11 averages around 12-13°C supporting the positioning. Current evening readings near 8°C under clear skies and falling temperatures make any late-day surge to 13°C or higher unlikely, barring an improbable wind shift or prolonged clear-sky radiative heating; final IMGW daily report expected soon will confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,897 Vol.
$83,897 Vol.
11 abr 2026
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,897 Vol.
$83,897 Vol.
11 abr 2026
12°C
$13,428 Vol.
100%
13°C
$10,773 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$6,624 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$5,197 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$4,327 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) at Chopin Airport station, where hourly data peaked at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs accurately forecasted this modest high within a cool continental air mass typical for early mid-spring in central Poland, with historical April 11 averages around 12-13°C supporting the positioning. Current evening readings near 8°C under clear skies and falling temperatures make any late-day surge to 13°C or higher unlikely, barring an improbable wind shift or prolonged clear-sky radiative heating; final IMGW daily report expected soon will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$83,897Data de Término
11 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) at Chopin Airport station, where hourly data peaked at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs accurately forecasted this modest high within a cool continental air mass typical for early mid-spring in central Poland, with historical April 11 averages around 12-13°C supporting the positioning. Current evening readings near 8°C under clear skies and falling temperatures make any late-day surge to 13°C or higher unlikely, barring an improbable wind shift or prolonged clear-sky radiative heating; final IMGW daily report expected soon will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,897Data de Término
11 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) at Chopin Airport station, where hourly data peaked at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs accurately forecasted this modest high within a cool continental air mass typical for early mid-spring in central Poland, with historical April 11 averages around 12-13°C supporting the positioning. Current evening readings near 8°C under clear skies and falling temperatures make any late-day surge to 13°C or higher unlikely, barring an improbable wind shift or prolonged clear-sky radiative heating; final IMGW daily report expected soon will confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions