Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
14°C 32%
13°C 22%
16°C 20%
15°C 20%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
10%
13°C
22%
14°C
32%
15°C
20%
16°C
17%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
3%
14°C 32%
13°C 22%
16°C 20%
15°C 20%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
10%
13°C
22%
14°C
32%
15°C
20%
16°C
17%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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