Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 11, with 99.6% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from China Meteorological Administration models and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Persistent cloudy conditions and southerly winds at 10-15 km/h are suppressing solar insolation, capping daytime heating after morning temperatures started near 24°C. Current observations from Bao'an Airport station—the likely resolution source—align with peaks near 28°C under high humidity around 80%. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include brief clearing skies boosting insolation to push 29°C, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; official daily measurements expected by evening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
28°C 99.6%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$157,372 Vol.
$157,372 Vol.
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.6%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$157,372 Vol.
$157,372 Vol.
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 11, with 99.6% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from China Meteorological Administration models and international ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Persistent cloudy conditions and southerly winds at 10-15 km/h are suppressing solar insolation, capping daytime heating after morning temperatures started near 24°C. Current observations from Bao'an Airport station—the likely resolution source—align with peaks near 28°C under high humidity around 80%. Historical April averages hover at 27°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include brief clearing skies boosting insolation to push 29°C, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; official daily measurements expected by evening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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