Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 46°F or higher in Chicago on April 11, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 56°F at the resolution station, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD). This reflects model consensus from recent runs showing a stable upper-level ridge promoting mild advection, light north-northeast winds at 10 mph, and partial clearing amid mostly cloudy skies with just a 49% chance of scattered showers—conditions far exceeding the 46°F threshold and aligning with the April 11 climatological normal high of 57°F. Yesterday's observed highs near 58°F at nearby Midway Airport further bolster confidence. Realistic challenges, though unlikely per ensemble guidance, include persistent marine-layer clouds from Lake Michigan or an unexpected cool front suppressing afternoon heating below 46°F before evening resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 11 de abril?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 11 de abril?
46°F ou mais 99.6%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
$116,176 Vol.
$116,176 Vol.
11 abr 2026
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46°F ou mais
100%
46°F ou mais 99.6%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
$116,176 Vol.
$116,176 Vol.
11 abr 2026
38-39°F
$4,973 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$4,784 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$12,612 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$13,037 Vol.
<1%
46°F ou mais
$63,403 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 46°F or higher in Chicago on April 11, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 56°F at the resolution station, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD). This reflects model consensus from recent runs showing a stable upper-level ridge promoting mild advection, light north-northeast winds at 10 mph, and partial clearing amid mostly cloudy skies with just a 49% chance of scattered showers—conditions far exceeding the 46°F threshold and aligning with the April 11 climatological normal high of 57°F. Yesterday's observed highs near 58°F at nearby Midway Airport further bolster confidence. Realistic challenges, though unlikely per ensemble guidance, include persistent marine-layer clouds from Lake Michigan or an unexpected cool front suppressing afternoon heating below 46°F before evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$116,176Data de Término
11 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 46°F or higher in Chicago on April 11, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 56°F at the resolution station, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD). This reflects model consensus from recent runs showing a stable upper-level ridge promoting mild advection, light north-northeast winds at 10 mph, and partial clearing amid mostly cloudy skies with just a 49% chance of scattered showers—conditions far exceeding the 46°F threshold and aligning with the April 11 climatological normal high of 57°F. Yesterday's observed highs near 58°F at nearby Midway Airport further bolster confidence. Realistic challenges, though unlikely per ensemble guidance, include persistent marine-layer clouds from Lake Michigan or an unexpected cool front suppressing afternoon heating below 46°F before evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$116,176Data de Término
11 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to a high temperature of 46°F or higher in Chicago on April 11, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting a peak near 56°F at the resolution station, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD). This reflects model consensus from recent runs showing a stable upper-level ridge promoting mild advection, light north-northeast winds at 10 mph, and partial clearing amid mostly cloudy skies with just a 49% chance of scattered showers—conditions far exceeding the 46°F threshold and aligning with the April 11 climatological normal high of 57°F. Yesterday's observed highs near 58°F at nearby Midway Airport further bolster confidence. Realistic challenges, though unlikely per ensemble guidance, include persistent marine-layer clouds from Lake Michigan or an unexpected cool front suppressing afternoon heating below 46°F before evening resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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