Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure early in April—such as bridge targets on April 7 amid ongoing exchanges—and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including massive raids killing over 250 on April 9 and strikes on paramedics April 16. The 40% odds on three countries reflect potential Houthi retaliation from Yemen prompting further action, following their April 1-2 missile barrages coordinated with Iran proxies, though no verified Israeli strikes there yet. Low 6% for four or more stems from a fragile US-brokered Iran ceasefire holding since April 7, narrowing focus to primary fronts despite Israel-Lebanon talks faltering. Escalation barriers include diplomatic pressures and resource limits through month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoContra quantos países Israel realizará uma ação militar em abril?
Contra quantos países Israel realizará uma ação militar em abril?
2 55%
3 40%
≥4 6%
$103,374 Vol.
$103,374 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2
55%
3
40%
≥4
6%
2 55%
3 40%
≥4 6%
$103,374 Vol.
$103,374 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2
$25,449 Vol.
55%
3
$30,440 Vol.
40%
≥4
$40,018 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure early in April—such as bridge targets on April 7 amid ongoing exchanges—and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including massive raids killing over 250 on April 9 and strikes on paramedics April 16. The 40% odds on three countries reflect potential Houthi retaliation from Yemen prompting further action, following their April 1-2 missile barrages coordinated with Iran proxies, though no verified Israeli strikes there yet. Low 6% for four or more stems from a fragile US-brokered Iran ceasefire holding since April 7, narrowing focus to primary fronts despite Israel-Lebanon talks faltering. Escalation barriers include diplomatic pressures and resource limits through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$103,374Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure early in April—such as bridge targets on April 7 amid ongoing exchanges—and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including massive raids killing over 250 on April 9 and strikes on paramedics April 16. The 40% odds on three countries reflect potential Houthi retaliation from Yemen prompting further action, following their April 1-2 missile barrages coordinated with Iran proxies, though no verified Israeli strikes there yet. Low 6% for four or more stems from a fragile US-brokered Iran ceasefire holding since April 7, narrowing focus to primary fronts despite Israel-Lebanon talks faltering. Escalation barriers include diplomatic pressures and resource limits through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$103,374Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure early in April—such as bridge targets on April 7 amid ongoing exchanges—and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including massive raids killing over 250 on April 9 and strikes on paramedics April 16. The 40% odds on three countries reflect potential Houthi retaliation from Yemen prompting further action, following their April 1-2 missile barrages coordinated with Iran proxies, though no verified Israeli strikes there yet. Low 6% for four or more stems from a fragile US-brokered Iran ceasefire holding since April 7, narrowing focus to primary fronts despite Israel-Lebanon talks faltering. Escalation barriers include diplomatic pressures and resource limits through month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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