Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, including the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have focused on regime change, self-determination, and potential administration of Kurdish-majority areas amid protests and external pressures rather than issuing a formal independence declaration. Tehran maintains firm military control through Revolutionary Guard operations and cross-border strikes, while Turkey and Iraq oppose any fragmentation that could affect their own Kurdish populations. Exploratory U.S. discussions on supporting Kurdish forces target pressure on the Iranian government, not secession. These structural barriers—limited territorial control, regional alliances against separatism, and historical preference among many groups for autonomy within a unified Iran—underpin trader consensus against an imminent declaration, though a sudden regime collapse or major escalation could alter conditions.