Kurdish opposition groups in Iran, including parties in the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have consistently prioritized regime change and self-determination through autonomy or federal arrangements within a unified Iran rather than formal secession. Recent protests, limited insurgent activity, and U.S. discussions on support have focused on weakening central authority and advancing Kurdish rights inside existing borders, with explicit statements rejecting separatist framing. Iranian security forces maintain firm control over Kurdish-majority provinces, deterring any territorial assertion. Trader consensus on “No” at 98.2% reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any qualifying declaration by recognized groups ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date; only a rapid regime collapse creating a power vacuum could realistically alter this positioning.