**Current short-range forecast models indicate an overnight low for Incheon on September 14 likely falling in the 17–21°C range, producing closely matched market-implied odds across multiple temperature bins.** This reflects genuine model spread and timing uncertainties rather than any single dominant outcome. Primary drivers include the seasonal transition to cooler autumn air masses over the Korean Peninsula, light northwesterly winds, and variable cloud cover that modulates nocturnal radiative cooling. Clear or partly cloudy skies allow greater heat loss to space, potentially pushing the minimum toward 17–19°C, while increased humidity or lingering overcast conditions can limit cooling and support readings near 20–21°C. Incheon's coastal location adds maritime moderation from the Yellow Sea, reducing extremes compared to inland Seoul. With resolution just days away, traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs plus local observations; any shift in predicted wind speed, dew point, or frontal timing could quickly rebalance the 50% odds on the 19°C, 21°C, and adjacent bins.