Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces Democratic nominee Brian Miller in Montana’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both secured their party nominations in the June primaries. The district’s R+15 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and Downing’s 2024 margin of roughly 30 points underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling shifts since the primaries. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in eastern Montana counties or a significant national political realignment, though structural barriers and the compressed campaign window make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMT-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
MT-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$45,338 Vol.
$45,338 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
95%
Partido Democrata
5%
$45,338 Vol.
$45,338 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$26,444 Vol.
95%
Partido Democrata
$18,894 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces Democratic nominee Brian Miller in Montana’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both secured their party nominations in the June primaries. The district’s R+15 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and Downing’s 2024 margin of roughly 30 points underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling shifts since the primaries. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in eastern Montana counties or a significant national political realignment, though structural barriers and the compressed campaign window make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$45,338Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces Democratic nominee Brian Miller in Montana’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both secured their party nominations in the June primaries. The district’s R+15 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and Downing’s 2024 margin of roughly 30 points underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling shifts since the primaries. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in eastern Montana counties or a significant national political realignment, though structural barriers and the compressed campaign window make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,338Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces Democratic nominee Brian Miller in Montana’s 2nd congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both secured their party nominations in the June primaries. The district’s R+15 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and Downing’s 2024 margin of roughly 30 points underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling shifts since the primaries. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in eastern Montana counties or a significant national political realignment, though structural barriers and the compressed campaign window make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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