Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as Solid R or Safe R across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement announcement has not altered the underlying dynamics in this rural, agricultural district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The August 4, 2026, top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky, establishing a clear partisan general-election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the district's baseline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Democrata
8%
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$20,390 Vol.
92%
Partido Democrata
$20,944 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as Solid R or Safe R across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement announcement has not altered the underlying dynamics in this rural, agricultural district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The August 4, 2026, top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky, establishing a clear partisan general-election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,334Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as Solid R or Safe R across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement announcement has not altered the underlying dynamics in this rural, agricultural district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The August 4, 2026, top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky, establishing a clear partisan general-election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,334Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as Solid R or Safe R across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement announcement has not altered the underlying dynamics in this rural, agricultural district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The August 4, 2026, top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky, establishing a clear partisan general-election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the district's baseline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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