Russia's ongoing hybrid campaign against Poland, including sabotage of rail lines and power infrastructure plus suspected cyberattacks in late 2025 and early 2026, has kept tensions elevated without triggering a direct kinetic strike. The September 2025 incursion of 19–23 Russian drones into Polish airspace—prompting NATO Article 4 consultations, aircraft scrambles, and downings by allied forces—remains the clearest recent test of red lines, viewed by officials as deliberate probing rather than error. Moscow continues airspace violations and military signaling near the eastern flank amid the Ukraine conflict, while Poland strengthens bilateral defense ties and NATO presence deters escalation. Traders weigh these recurrent low-level actions against Article 5 commitments and resource constraints from the active war, with any future drone or missile crossing into Polish territory likely to move probabilities sharply.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGreve russa na Polónia por...?
Greve russa na Polónia por...?
$1,979,467 Vol.
30 set 2025
30 de setembro
Não
31 de dezembro
Não
30 de junho de 2026
Não
$1,979,467 Vol.
30 de setembro
$1,663,225 Vol.
Não
31 de dezembro
$185,443 Vol.
Não
30 de junho de 2026
$130,799 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing hybrid campaign against Poland, including sabotage of rail lines and power infrastructure plus suspected cyberattacks in late 2025 and early 2026, has kept tensions elevated without triggering a direct kinetic strike. The September 2025 incursion of 19–23 Russian drones into Polish airspace—prompting NATO Article 4 consultations, aircraft scrambles, and downings by allied forces—remains the clearest recent test of red lines, viewed by officials as deliberate probing rather than error. Moscow continues airspace violations and military signaling near the eastern flank amid the Ukraine conflict, while Poland strengthens bilateral defense ties and NATO presence deters escalation. Traders weigh these recurrent low-level actions against Article 5 commitments and resource constraints from the active war, with any future drone or missile crossing into Polish territory likely to move probabilities sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2025, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,979,467Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2025, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing hybrid campaign against Poland, including sabotage of rail lines and power infrastructure plus suspected cyberattacks in late 2025 and early 2026, has kept tensions elevated without triggering a direct kinetic strike. The September 2025 incursion of 19–23 Russian drones into Polish airspace—prompting NATO Article 4 consultations, aircraft scrambles, and downings by allied forces—remains the clearest recent test of red lines, viewed by officials as deliberate probing rather than error. Moscow continues airspace violations and military signaling near the eastern flank amid the Ukraine conflict, while Poland strengthens bilateral defense ties and NATO presence deters escalation. Traders weigh these recurrent low-level actions against Article 5 commitments and resource constraints from the active war, with any future drone or missile crossing into Polish territory likely to move probabilities sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,979,467Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2025, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Russia's ongoing hybrid campaign against Poland, including sabotage of rail lines and power infrastructure plus suspected cyberattacks in late 2025 and early 2026, has kept tensions elevated without triggering a direct kinetic strike. The September 2025 incursion of 19–23 Russian drones into Polish airspace—prompting NATO Article 4 consultations, aircraft scrambles, and downings by allied forces—remains the clearest recent test of red lines, viewed by officials as deliberate probing rather than error. Moscow continues airspace violations and military signaling near the eastern flank amid the Ukraine conflict, while Poland strengthens bilateral defense ties and NATO presence deters escalation. Traders weigh these recurrent low-level actions against Article 5 commitments and resource constraints from the active war, with any future drone or missile crossing into Polish territory likely to move probabilities sharply.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions