Market icon
Eleições·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

Market icon
Eleições·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner

Doly Begum 98.3%

Pooja Malhotra 1.5%

April Francisco 1.3%

Diana Filipova 1.1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Doly Begum 98.3%

Pooja Malhotra 1.5%

April Francisco 1.3%

Diana Filipova 1.1%

Polymarket
NOVO
Market icon

Doly Begum

$275 Vol.

98%

Market icon

Pooja Malhotra

$41 Vol.

2%

Market icon

April Francisco

$41 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Diana Filipova

$41 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Lyall Sanders

$41 Vol.

1%

Market icon

David Vedova

$42 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Peter Koubakis

$57 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Fatima Shaban

$43 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Liberal candidate Doly Begum commands 98% trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election set for April 13, fueled by the riding's historical Liberal stronghold—61% in the 2025 general election—and her incumbency-like profile as the outgoing NDP provincial MPP who resigned her seat to run federally. A March Mainstreet poll showed Liberals leading decisively, reinforced by Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement on April 3 and a candidate debate on April 2 highlighting local issues like housing without notable gaffes. Advance polls opened April 3 amid steady campaigning. While entrenched advantages make an upset improbable, a late scandal over her party switch, depressed Liberal turnout, or Conservative momentum for Diana Filipova could theoretically shift odds in this first-past-the-post riding.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$580
Data de Término
13 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Liberal candidate Doly Begum commands 98% trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election set for April 13, fueled by the riding's historical Liberal stronghold—61% in the 2025 general election—and her incumbency-like profile as the outgoing NDP provincial MPP who resigned her seat to run federally. A March Mainstreet poll showed Liberals leading decisively, reinforced by Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement on April 3 and a candidate debate on April 2 highlighting local issues like housing without notable gaffes. Advance polls opened April 3 amid steady campaigning. While entrenched advantages make an upset improbable, a late scandal over her party switch, depressed Liberal turnout, or Conservative momentum for Diana Filipova could theoretically shift odds in this first-past-the-post riding.

A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$580
Data de Término
13 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Doly Begum" at 98%, followed by "Pooja Malhotra" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" is "Doly Begum" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pooja Malhotra" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.