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Geopolítica·Irão

Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?

abr 30

abr 30

$464,214 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$464,214 Vol.

Polymarket

Refinaria de Ruwais

$39,648 Vol.

25%

Cidade Industrial de Ras Laffan

$35,857 Vol.

22%

Ras Tanura

$37,991 Vol.

19%

Campo de Khurais

$14,786 Vol.

19%

Campo/Complexo de Processamento Habshan

$46,277 Vol.

14%

Refinaria de Al Zour

$30,213 Vol.

13%

Instalação de processamento de petróleo de Abqaiq

$38,341 Vol.

11%

Campo de Ghawar

$12,229 Vol.

11%

Campo Safaniya

$11,512 Vol.

10%

Campo de Leviatã

$7,662 Vol.

8%

Burj Khalifa

$8,228 Vol.

3%

Dimona (Centro de Pesquisa Nuclear Shimon Peres Negev)

$78,280 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$464,214
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$464,214
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Refinaria Mina Al-Ahmadi" at 100%, followed by "Oleoduto Leste–Oeste" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?" has generated $464.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?" is "Refinaria Mina Al-Ahmadi" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Oleoduto Leste–Oeste" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Contra o que o Irã conduzirá uma ação militar até 30 de abril?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.