Ongoing U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets, naval blockades, and focus on infrastructure like the Strait of Hormuz have sustained tensions through July 2026, yet these remain limited operations rather than preparations for ground invasion. Iranian threats of wider retaliation and reports of cyber activity have not shifted U.S. policy toward large-scale troop commitments, reflecting assessments of high logistical, political, and escalation costs. Diplomatic mediation attempts and lack of declared intent for regime-change occupation reinforce trader consensus that a full invasion before 2027 remains improbable, even as proxy conflicts and sanctions persist. Scheduled events or new strikes could still alter dynamics before year-end.