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icon for AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket

$23,907 Объем

Polymarket

$23,907 Объем

Брюс Вестерман (Р)

$12,557 Объем

94%

Джеймс Рассел (Д)

$11,350 Объем

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican performance, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Westerman, seeking a seventh term after winning his prior general election by roughly 73 percent, advanced unopposed through the canceled GOP primary. Democrat James Russell, a mental health advocate who defeated Steven O'Donnell in the March 3 Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district that stretches across southwest Arkansas. With the November 3, 2026 general election approaching and limited polling available, trader consensus reflects Westerman's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's voting history. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, significant campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the weeks ahead.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$23,907
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas 4th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican performance, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Westerman, seeking a seventh term after winning his prior general election by roughly 73 percent, advanced unopposed through the canceled GOP primary. Democrat James Russell, a mental health advocate who defeated Steven O'Donnell in the March 3 Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district that stretches across southwest Arkansas. With the November 3, 2026 general election approaching and limited polling available, trader consensus reflects Westerman's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's voting history. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, significant campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the weeks ahead.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$23,907
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу AR-03?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу AR-03?

95%
Да
icon for Республиканская партия выиграет место в Палате представителей по округу AR-02?

Республиканская партия выиграет место в Палате представителей по округу AR-02?

83%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу CO-04?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу CO-04?

72%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Брюс Вестерман (Р)» с 94%, за ним следует «Джеймс Рассел (Д)» с 5%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 94¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 94%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $23.9K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Брюс Вестерман (Р)» с 94%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 94%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джеймс Рассел (Д)» с 5%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.