Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination with roughly two-thirds of the vote in the July 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger and entering the November general election against Republican Zuhdi Jasser and minor No Labels candidates. The district's composition in Maricopa County, encompassing areas of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has consistently favored Democratic performance in recent cycles, including Stanton's 2024 reelection. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, Stanton's established fundraising edge, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A national Republican surge, significant third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios based on current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAZ-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AZ-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$33,718 Объем
$33,718 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Грег Стантон (Д)
95%
Зухди Джассер (Р)
6%
$33,718 Объем
$33,718 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Грег Стантон (Д)
$25,677 Объем
95%
Зухди Джассер (Р)
$8,041 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination with roughly two-thirds of the vote in the July 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger and entering the November general election against Republican Zuhdi Jasser and minor No Labels candidates. The district's composition in Maricopa County, encompassing areas of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has consistently favored Democratic performance in recent cycles, including Stanton's 2024 reelection. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, Stanton's established fundraising edge, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A national Republican surge, significant third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$33,718Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination with roughly two-thirds of the vote in the July 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger and entering the November general election against Republican Zuhdi Jasser and minor No Labels candidates. The district's composition in Maricopa County, encompassing areas of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has consistently favored Democratic performance in recent cycles, including Stanton's 2024 reelection. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, Stanton's established fundraising edge, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A national Republican surge, significant third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$33,718Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination with roughly two-thirds of the vote in the July 2026 primary, defeating a progressive challenger and entering the November general election against Republican Zuhdi Jasser and minor No Labels candidates. The district's composition in Maricopa County, encompassing areas of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, has consistently favored Democratic performance in recent cycles, including Stanton's 2024 reelection. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, Stanton's established fundraising edge, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A national Republican surge, significant third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios based on current conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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