Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus while headline PCE came in hotter than expected at 0.2%. This outcome, amid 65 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target and elevated services and housing components, has kept trader focus on whether underlying price pressures are reaccelerating or stabilizing. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.2%–0.3% for August because incoming indicators—consumer spending, energy pass-through from recent geopolitical shocks, and labor cost trends—offer mixed signals on momentum. The September 11 CPI release and September 15–16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution before the August PCE prints around September 30.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0.3% 38%
0.2% 36%
0.1% 12%
0.4% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
≤-0.1%
2%
0.0%
3%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
36%
0.3%
38%
0.4%
11%
0.5%+
8%
0.3% 38%
0.2% 36%
0.1% 12%
0.4% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
≤-0.1%
$37 Объем
2%
0.0%
$37 Объем
3%
0.1%
$57 Объем
12%
0.2%
$582 Объем
36%
0.3%
$457 Объем
38%
0.4%
$110 Объем
11%
0.5%+
$73 Объем
8%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus while headline PCE came in hotter than expected at 0.2%. This outcome, amid 65 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target and elevated services and housing components, has kept trader focus on whether underlying price pressures are reaccelerating or stabilizing. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.2%–0.3% for August because incoming indicators—consumer spending, energy pass-through from recent geopolitical shocks, and labor cost trends—offer mixed signals on momentum. The September 11 CPI release and September 15–16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution before the August PCE prints around September 30.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Объем
$1,353Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus while headline PCE came in hotter than expected at 0.2%. This outcome, amid 65 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target and elevated services and housing components, has kept trader focus on whether underlying price pressures are reaccelerating or stabilizing. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.2%–0.3% for August because incoming indicators—consumer spending, energy pass-through from recent geopolitical shocks, and labor cost trends—offer mixed signals on momentum. The September 11 CPI release and September 15–16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution before the August PCE prints around September 30.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Объем
$1,353Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus while headline PCE came in hotter than expected at 0.2%. This outcome, amid 65 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target and elevated services and housing components, has kept trader focus on whether underlying price pressures are reaccelerating or stabilizing. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.2%–0.3% for August because incoming indicators—consumer spending, energy pass-through from recent geopolitical shocks, and labor cost trends—offer mixed signals on momentum. The September 11 CPI release and September 15–16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution before the August PCE prints around September 30.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы