The latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast models and international ensembles project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at around 17°C, reflecting trader consensus with 40.5% implied probability, amid overcast skies and light showers from a passing frontal system that suppresses solar heating. This positions 17°C ahead of 18°C (27%) due to yesterday's observed cloud buildup and morning updates indicating 99% precipitation odds and 25 mph winds, cooling from April 3's sunny 18°C high. Model spread introduces uncertainty between 16-19°C, hinging on rain timing and intensity; early April climatology averages 17-18°C highs with similar transitional patterns. JMA's next hourly advisory, due imminently, could refine probabilities as resolution nears tomorrow.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
17°C 40%
18°C 27%
16°C 19%
19°C 14.2%
$16,331 Объем
$16,331 Объем
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
19%
17°C
40%
18°C
27%
19°C
14%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
17°C 40%
18°C 27%
16°C 19%
19°C 14.2%
$16,331 Объем
$16,331 Объем
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
19%
17°C
40%
18°C
27%
19°C
14%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast models and international ensembles project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at around 17°C, reflecting trader consensus with 40.5% implied probability, amid overcast skies and light showers from a passing frontal system that suppresses solar heating. This positions 17°C ahead of 18°C (27%) due to yesterday's observed cloud buildup and morning updates indicating 99% precipitation odds and 25 mph winds, cooling from April 3's sunny 18°C high. Model spread introduces uncertainty between 16-19°C, hinging on rain timing and intensity; early April climatology averages 17-18°C highs with similar transitional patterns. JMA's next hourly advisory, due imminently, could refine probabilities as resolution nears tomorrow.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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