Recent forecast guidance from UK Met Office and European models shows London overnight lows on June 29 settling near 14–15 °C after a mid-month warm spell that pushed daytime highs into the high 20s. Persistent south-westerly flow and gradual clearing behind earlier fronts are allowing radiational cooling under lighter winds and partly cloudy skies, consistent with climatological June minimums of 12–15 °C. Ensemble spreads remain tight around these values, with limited downside risk from further cooling or upside from lingering warmth, supporting the market’s heavy concentration on 14 °C (53 %) and 15 °C (41 %). Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the weekend remain the key near-term catalysts.