**Mexico City's high elevation (approximately 2,240 meters) and ongoing rainy-season conditions are the dominant factors shaping the lowest temperature on August 29, 2026.** Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover from thunderstorms is expected to drive the daily minimum, with official and model guidance converging on overnight lows near 10–13°C (roughly 50–55°F). Recent forecasts highlight light-to-moderate rain and high humidity that limit extreme cooling while still permitting brief clearer periods for temperatures to dip toward single digits Celsius; multiple sources show early-morning readings around 10°C, consistent with climatological August norms at this altitude. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated 40.5% implied probability on 9°C or below, appears driven by the potential for localized cooling pockets or slight downward revisions in the latest model runs amid persistent moisture. Higher-probability bins clustered around 11–14°C capture the most likely range under typical steering patterns and dew-point suppression, while warmer outcomes remain discounted given the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky amplification. Key upcoming inputs include updated National Meteorological Service observations and any final adjustments to overnight model guidance before resolution.