Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 1 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 1 сентября?
5°C 99.6%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
7°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
100%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
5°C 99.6%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
7°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
2°C or below
$397 Объем
<1%
3°C
$473 Объем
1%
4°C
$197 Объем
1%
5°C
$404 Объем
100%
6°C
$421 Объем
<1%
7°C
$1,343 Объем
1%
8°C
$1,380 Объем
<1%
9°C
$1,170 Объем
<1%
10°C
$134 Объем
<1%
11°C
$219 Объем
<1%
12°C or higher
$172 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$6,309Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$6,309Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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