**Forecast uncertainty from variable northwesterly winds and model spreads drives the closely matched implied probabilities across 10–15°C outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2.** Official MetService guidance projects a low near 12°C under fine conditions turning to afternoon showers with strong northwesterlies, while other models show overnight values ranging 10–13°C depending on cloud cover, wind timing, and radiational cooling rates. El Niño background conditions favor near- or above-average temperatures for the region, yet short-term variability from the current synoptic pattern—persistent NW flow and potential for patchy cloud—keeps the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast revisions. Traders weigh official agency updates and ensemble spreads ahead of resolution, recognizing that even modest shifts in overnight minima can alter outcomes within the tight probability band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 2 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 2 сентября?
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 сент. 2026 г.
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
1%
14°C
-
15°C
49%
16°C
35%
17°C or higher
42%
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 сент. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$31 Объем
-
8°C
$11 Объем
-
9°C
$10 Объем
-
10°C
$10 Объем
-
11°C
$10 Объем
-
12°C
$0 Объем
-
13°C
$169 Объем
1%
14°C
$5 Объем
-
15°C
$10 Объем
49%
16°C
$10 Объем
35%
17°C or higher
$137 Объем
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty from variable northwesterly winds and model spreads drives the closely matched implied probabilities across 10–15°C outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2.** Official MetService guidance projects a low near 12°C under fine conditions turning to afternoon showers with strong northwesterlies, while other models show overnight values ranging 10–13°C depending on cloud cover, wind timing, and radiational cooling rates. El Niño background conditions favor near- or above-average temperatures for the region, yet short-term variability from the current synoptic pattern—persistent NW flow and potential for patchy cloud—keeps the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast revisions. Traders weigh official agency updates and ensemble spreads ahead of resolution, recognizing that even modest shifts in overnight minima can alter outcomes within the tight probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$403Дата окончания
2 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty from variable northwesterly winds and model spreads drives the closely matched implied probabilities across 10–15°C outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2.** Official MetService guidance projects a low near 12°C under fine conditions turning to afternoon showers with strong northwesterlies, while other models show overnight values ranging 10–13°C depending on cloud cover, wind timing, and radiational cooling rates. El Niño background conditions favor near- or above-average temperatures for the region, yet short-term variability from the current synoptic pattern—persistent NW flow and potential for patchy cloud—keeps the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast revisions. Traders weigh official agency updates and ensemble spreads ahead of resolution, recognizing that even modest shifts in overnight minima can alter outcomes within the tight probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$403Дата окончания
2 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty from variable northwesterly winds and model spreads drives the closely matched implied probabilities across 10–15°C outcomes for Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2.** Official MetService guidance projects a low near 12°C under fine conditions turning to afternoon showers with strong northwesterlies, while other models show overnight values ranging 10–13°C depending on cloud cover, wind timing, and radiational cooling rates. El Niño background conditions favor near- or above-average temperatures for the region, yet short-term variability from the current synoptic pattern—persistent NW flow and potential for patchy cloud—keeps the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast revisions. Traders weigh official agency updates and ensemble spreads ahead of resolution, recognizing that even modest shifts in overnight minima can alter outcomes within the tight probability band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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