Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure and above-normal late-summer heat, have expanded D3-D4 areas in states including Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Arkansas, with national D4 coverage near 1.5-1.75%. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25 shows 43 states already experiencing D1 or worse, setting a high baseline for the early-September release. A developing strong El Niño favors eventual monsoon enhancement and drought relief in the Southwest but offers limited near-term signal for the first week of September, while the Northern Plains and West face continued dry steering patterns. With model consensus showing only modest short-term shifts and historical late-summer persistence of exceptional drought pockets, trader odds cluster around mid-range outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact state-level thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 1 сентября 2026 года?
Сколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 1 сентября 2026 года?
10 или более штатов 44%
5-6 штатов 38%
7-9 штатов 38%
0 штатов 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
27%
1-2 штата
26%
3-4 штата
26%
5-6 штатов
38%
7-9 штатов
38%
10 или более штатов
44%
10 или более штатов 44%
5-6 штатов 38%
7-9 штатов 38%
0 штатов 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
$1 Объем
27%
1-2 штата
$0 Объем
26%
3-4 штата
$1 Объем
26%
5-6 штатов
$0 Объем
38%
7-9 штатов
$1 Объем
38%
10 или более штатов
$0 Объем
44%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure and above-normal late-summer heat, have expanded D3-D4 areas in states including Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Arkansas, with national D4 coverage near 1.5-1.75%. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25 shows 43 states already experiencing D1 or worse, setting a high baseline for the early-September release. A developing strong El Niño favors eventual monsoon enhancement and drought relief in the Southwest but offers limited near-term signal for the first week of September, while the Northern Plains and West face continued dry steering patterns. With model consensus showing only modest short-term shifts and historical late-summer persistence of exceptional drought pockets, trader odds cluster around mid-range outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact state-level thresholds.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Объем
$3Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure and above-normal late-summer heat, have expanded D3-D4 areas in states including Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Arkansas, with national D4 coverage near 1.5-1.75%. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25 shows 43 states already experiencing D1 or worse, setting a high baseline for the early-September release. A developing strong El Niño favors eventual monsoon enhancement and drought relief in the Southwest but offers limited near-term signal for the first week of September, while the Northern Plains and West face continued dry steering patterns. With model consensus showing only modest short-term shifts and historical late-summer persistence of exceptional drought pockets, trader odds cluster around mid-range outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact state-level thresholds.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Объем
$3Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure and above-normal late-summer heat, have expanded D3-D4 areas in states including Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Arkansas, with national D4 coverage near 1.5-1.75%. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25 shows 43 states already experiencing D1 or worse, setting a high baseline for the early-September release. A developing strong El Niño favors eventual monsoon enhancement and drought relief in the Southwest but offers limited near-term signal for the first week of September, while the Northern Plains and West face continued dry steering patterns. With model consensus showing only modest short-term shifts and historical late-summer persistence of exceptional drought pockets, trader odds cluster around mid-range outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact state-level thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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