Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense September 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the joint capabilities needed for a large-scale amphibious landing, including sustained multi-axis operations, air and sea superiority, and reliable logistics. Ongoing military purges have further complicated command integration, while Beijing has prioritized gray-zone pressure through frequent air and maritime incursions, coast guard deployments, and blockade rehearsals rather than an immediate crossing of the strait. These factors, combined with visible Taiwanese readiness drills and allied deterrence posture, underpin the 96 percent trader consensus against an invasion before the end of 2026. A rapid shift would require either an unexpected acceleration of PLA readiness or a major external trigger capable of altering Beijing’s risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$42,585,772 Объем
$42,585,772 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
4% вероятность
$42,585,772 Объем
$42,585,772 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense September 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the joint capabilities needed for a large-scale amphibious landing, including sustained multi-axis operations, air and sea superiority, and reliable logistics. Ongoing military purges have further complicated command integration, while Beijing has prioritized gray-zone pressure through frequent air and maritime incursions, coast guard deployments, and blockade rehearsals rather than an immediate crossing of the strait. These factors, combined with visible Taiwanese readiness drills and allied deterrence posture, underpin the 96 percent trader consensus against an invasion before the end of 2026. A rapid shift would require either an unexpected acceleration of PLA readiness or a major external trigger capable of altering Beijing’s risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$42,585,772Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense September 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the joint capabilities needed for a large-scale amphibious landing, including sustained multi-axis operations, air and sea superiority, and reliable logistics. Ongoing military purges have further complicated command integration, while Beijing has prioritized gray-zone pressure through frequent air and maritime incursions, coast guard deployments, and blockade rehearsals rather than an immediate crossing of the strait. These factors, combined with visible Taiwanese readiness drills and allied deterrence posture, underpin the 96 percent trader consensus against an invasion before the end of 2026. A rapid shift would require either an unexpected acceleration of PLA readiness or a major external trigger capable of altering Beijing’s risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$42,585,772Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense September 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the joint capabilities needed for a large-scale amphibious landing, including sustained multi-axis operations, air and sea superiority, and reliable logistics. Ongoing military purges have further complicated command integration, while Beijing has prioritized gray-zone pressure through frequent air and maritime incursions, coast guard deployments, and blockade rehearsals rather than an immediate crossing of the strait. These factors, combined with visible Taiwanese readiness drills and allied deterrence posture, underpin the 96 percent trader consensus against an invasion before the end of 2026. A rapid shift would require either an unexpected acceleration of PLA readiness or a major external trigger capable of altering Beijing’s risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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