Sustained but contained cross-strait tensions underpin the market's strong consensus that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026. Beijing has maintained elevated maritime and coast guard activity while reducing air incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ compared with prior years, favoring gray-zone pressure and normalization of presence over immediate amphibious operations. Taiwan continues realistic combat-readiness drills and asymmetric modernization, while U.S.-China diplomatic channels remain active ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi summit. With only months left in the resolution window, traders see no credible indicators of imminent large-scale mobilization. A sudden diplomatic rupture at the summit or a major miscalculation could still shift probabilities, though structural and logistical barriers make rapid escalation unlikely.