**Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol faces a life sentence for insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration, delivered by the Seoul Central District Court in February 2026.** He remains in custody at the Seoul Detention Center while serving this term and additional convictions, including a separate two-year sentence issued in July 2026 on political funding charges. Multiple overlapping criminal proceedings continue on related allegations such as abuse of authority and perjury. South Korean appellate processes for such high-profile cases typically span years, with the initial appeals alone projected to extend into 2027 or beyond. Earlier releases and rearrests occurred in 2025, but post-conviction detention has remained continuous since the life sentence. No recent court rulings, bail grants, or executive actions have altered this trajectory. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for “No” aligns with the structural barriers of lengthy appeals, concurrent trials, and the severity of the primary conviction, which historically limit early release for similar defendants absent extraordinary developments. Scheduled hearings and potential appeals within the next 12–18 months represent the main near-term variables.