Persistent above-target inflation, with the July PCE price index rising to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, combined with a resilient labor market, underpins the 65% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 amplified near-term tightening expectations, pushing September hike odds above 50% in futures markets while the federal funds rate holds steady in the 3.50-3.75% range. Trader positioning reflects ongoing supply-side price pressures and limited evidence of cooling demand, though upcoming September FOMC data and any moderation in inflation prints could still shift the consensus path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
65% โอกาส
$8,117,591 ปริมาณ
$8,117,591 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
ใช่
65% โอกาส
$8,117,591 ปริมาณ
$8,117,591 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with the July PCE price index rising to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, combined with a resilient labor market, underpins the 65% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 amplified near-term tightening expectations, pushing September hike odds above 50% in futures markets while the federal funds rate holds steady in the 3.50-3.75% range. Trader positioning reflects ongoing supply-side price pressures and limited evidence of cooling demand, though upcoming September FOMC data and any moderation in inflation prints could still shift the consensus path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,117,591วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, with the July PCE price index rising to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, combined with a resilient labor market, underpins the 65% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 amplified near-term tightening expectations, pushing September hike odds above 50% in futures markets while the federal funds rate holds steady in the 3.50-3.75% range. Trader positioning reflects ongoing supply-side price pressures and limited evidence of cooling demand, though upcoming September FOMC data and any moderation in inflation prints could still shift the consensus path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,117,591วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, with the July PCE price index rising to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, combined with a resilient labor market, underpins the 65% market-implied probability of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 amplified near-term tightening expectations, pushing September hike odds above 50% in futures markets while the federal funds rate holds steady in the 3.50-3.75% range. Trader positioning reflects ongoing supply-side price pressures and limited evidence of cooling demand, though upcoming September FOMC data and any moderation in inflation prints could still shift the consensus path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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