Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 ปริมาณ
$125,715 ปริมาณ
Apr 19, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 ปริมาณ
$125,715 ปริมาณ
Apr 19, 2026
22°C or below
$7,429 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$5,860 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$6,886 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$5,307 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$7,356 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$8,271 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$10,665 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$20,813 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$29,872 ปริมาณ
Yes
31°C
$14,129 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$9,126 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$125,715วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$125,715วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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