Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 19?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
ใหม่
$11,343 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,343 ปริมาณ
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 7%
ใหม่
$11,343 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,343 ปริมาณ
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
$128 ปริมาณ
<1%
72-73°F
$1,629 ปริมาณ
<1%
74-75°F
$1,055 ปริมาณ
<1%
76-77°F
$358 ปริมาณ
7%
78-79°F
$1,716 ปริมาณ
30%
80-81°F
$1,626 ปริมาณ
45%
82-83°F
$320 ปริมาณ
14%
84-85°F
$416 ปริมาณ
2%
86-87°F
$352 ปริมาณ
1%
88-89°F
$2,385 ปริมาณ
<1%
90°F or higher
$1,359 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,343วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,343วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (39.5%) to a peak of 80–81°F in Chicago on July 19, reflecting National Weather Service model consensus for moderate high pressure and northwesterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent ensemble runs show surface temperatures constrained by dew points in the mid-60s and limited southerly moisture advection, keeping maxima below the seasonal normal near 84°F. Secondary outcomes at 78–79°F (23%) and 82–83°F (21.5%) capture uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F due to the absence of strong warm advection in the latest guidance. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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