The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$112,874 ปริมาณ
$112,874 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$112,874 ปริมาณ
$112,874 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
21°C or below
$402 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$4,341 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$871 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$3,464 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$4,887 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$59,266 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$11,377 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$19,810 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$5,244 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$1,667 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$1,545 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,874วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,874วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
The Hong Kong Observatory's official daily minimum of 26°C on August 6, 2026, anchors the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Forecasts from the HKO and supporting models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under generally fine, weak-wind conditions typical of mid-August climatology, with urban stations recording no significant cooling from cloud cover or showers. This consensus aligns with regional baselines showing August minima clustered around 26–28°C absent tropical disturbances. Trader positioning reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of verified observational data over model spread. Only an unreported station anomaly, data revision, or localized microclimate effect outside official thresholds could realistically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the post-event confirmation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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