**Northeast monsoon flow and persistent easterly winds of force 3–4 are the dominant controls on Hong Kong’s temperature regime through September 24, 2026, supporting mainly fine, dry conditions with only limited overnight cloud.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus indicate a daily minimum near 26–27 °C under clear-to-partly cloudy skies, allowing moderate radiative cooling but limited by residual moisture and light mixing. Recent showers on 21–22 September have left slightly elevated soil and boundary-layer moisture that could temper the overnight drop, while the strengthening anticyclone aloft favors subsidence and above-normal warmth consistent with the developing El Niño signal. Model spreads in minimum temperature remain modest (roughly 24–28 °C), producing closely matched market-implied odds across the 25–27 °C and cooler bins; any further tightening of the easterly gradient or unexpected clear-sky nocturnal cooling could shift the realized minimum within that narrow range before the next forecast cycle.