Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on July 4?
Lowest temperature in London on July 4?
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$40,934 ปริมาณ
$40,934 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$40,934 ปริมาณ
$40,934 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
13°C or below
$1,057 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$1,334 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$1,747 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$2,923 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$8,743 ปริมาณ
Yes
18°C
$10,642 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$2,875 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$2,715 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$2,711 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$3,008 ปริมาณ
No
23°C or higher
$3,178 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,934วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,934วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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