Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Madrid through September 14, favoring strong diurnal temperature swings with daytime highs near 33–36°C but overnight radiative cooling under light winds potentially driving the minimum into the 17–24°C range. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the exact low, as small shifts in wind patterns, dew point advection, or model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer mixing could push the reading below 16°C or above 26°C—hence the near-even market-implied odds on those tails versus the 20% levels on intermediate values. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 15.5–16°C, underscoring how current warm anomalies and stable anticyclonic flow heighten sensitivity to the next 48-hour model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
26°C or higher 92%
16°C or below 55%
17°C 40%
18°C 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
55%
17°C
40%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
92%
26°C or higher 92%
16°C or below 55%
17°C 40%
18°C 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
55%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
18°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
26°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Madrid through September 14, favoring strong diurnal temperature swings with daytime highs near 33–36°C but overnight radiative cooling under light winds potentially driving the minimum into the 17–24°C range. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the exact low, as small shifts in wind patterns, dew point advection, or model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer mixing could push the reading below 16°C or above 26°C—hence the near-even market-implied odds on those tails versus the 20% levels on intermediate values. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 15.5–16°C, underscoring how current warm anomalies and stable anticyclonic flow heighten sensitivity to the next 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Madrid through September 14, favoring strong diurnal temperature swings with daytime highs near 33–36°C but overnight radiative cooling under light winds potentially driving the minimum into the 17–24°C range. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the exact low, as small shifts in wind patterns, dew point advection, or model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer mixing could push the reading below 16°C or above 26°C—hence the near-even market-implied odds on those tails versus the 20% levels on intermediate values. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 15.5–16°C, underscoring how current warm anomalies and stable anticyclonic flow heighten sensitivity to the next 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Madrid through September 14, favoring strong diurnal temperature swings with daytime highs near 33–36°C but overnight radiative cooling under light winds potentially driving the minimum into the 17–24°C range. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the exact low, as small shifts in wind patterns, dew point advection, or model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer mixing could push the reading below 16°C or above 26°C—hence the near-even market-implied odds on those tails versus the 20% levels on intermediate values. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 15.5–16°C, underscoring how current warm anomalies and stable anticyclonic flow heighten sensitivity to the next 48-hour model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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